The Myplace Playbook // 063

Hey Everyone,

I want to dig into a reply I received last week, in fact I received this response from quite a few of you.

"I'll buy when rates come down."

It’s worth talking about right now as the Bank of Canada just gave it’s latest update. Not to talk you out of anything. Just because you deserve a straight answer.

Here's what "waiting for rates to come down" actually looks like right now.

The Bank of Canada held again this week. Overnight rate stays at 2.25%, prime at 4.45%. That's the fourth hold in a row. The seventh month without a cut since October 2025.

The analysts who were calling for cuts this spring have mostly gone silent. Markets are currently pricing a 3% chance of a cut at the next decision on June 10.

3% chance of a cut.

Not great odds.

And it gets a bit harder from there. With oil sitting around $105 a barrel due to the Middle East situation, inflation risk is back on the table. Some forecasters are now talking about rate hikes in the second half of the year, not cuts. Fixed rates have already climbed since the conflict escalated. The rate that looked like it was drifting toward 3.5% back in January isn't going there anymore.

I'm not telling you this to be the bearer of bad news. I'm telling you because if your plan is built around rates coming down, and coming down soon, the current picture doesn't really support that plan.

But here's what I think is actually going on.

When people say "I'll buy when rates come down," they usually don't mean a specific number. They don't have a calendar date circled.

They mean something closer to:
I'll buy when it feels less scary.
When someone tells me the coast is clear.
When I feel like the timing is right.

That's not a rate condition. That's a confidence condition.

And confidence doesn't come from a Bank of Canada announcement. It comes from knowing your actual number. What you qualify for today. What your payment would look like at today's rate. Whether the math works for your life right now, not the life you'd have if rates were different.

Most people who are waiting for rates haven't actually run those numbers. They're assuming the payment won't work, so they're waiting for the variable that makes it feel safer to find out.

But sometimes, more often than you'd think, the numbers already work. They just haven't been looked at yet.

There's also this.

The people who bought when rates were higher and refinanced when they came down? They also got two or three years of equity growth while everyone else was waiting. They weren't timing the market perfectly. They were just in it.

Waiting for rates to drop before you buy assumes the price stays the same while you wait. It often doesn't.

That's not an argument for rushing. It's an argument for making the decision based on real information rather than a future condition that may or may not arrive on your schedule.

So here's what I'd suggest.

Before you wait another six months watching rate announcements, let me run your actual numbers. What you qualify for today. What the payment looks like. What changes if rates move up or down from here.

It's not a commitment. It's just information. And most of the time, information is what turns "I'll buy when rates come down" into something with a real date attached to it.

Hit reply and tell me a bit about where you're at, what you're looking for, roughly what you earn, and how long you've been thinking about this. That's enough to start.

-Andrew