The Playbook // 001

Canada’s housing market saw a modest 2% increase in housing starts in 2024, according to CMHC. That brings the total number of new homes built last year to 245,120—but here’s the catch: it’s nowhere near the 400,000 annual target needed to restore affordability.

What’s really happening?

• The increase is mostly rental construction, meaning other housing types (like single-family homes and condos) aren’t keeping up.

• Where you live matters—Alberta (+32%) and Quebec (+26%) saw big gains, but Ontario (-16%) and BC (-9%) fell behind.

• Condo pre-sales are weak, which could limit future new builds, even as interest rates start to decline.

What does this mean for you?
If you’re a first-time buyer or a homeowner looking to move, expect competition for homes to remain high—especially in major urban centres where new supply is still falling short. If you’re considering your options, talk to me early so I can help you strategize.

🔥 Hot Reads for This Issue:

1. Why Are Condo Pre-Sales Stalling? Developers are hitting the brakes, and here’s why that matters for future supply.

   • Canada faces worsening home ownership crisis with stalled condo sales

     reuters.com

   • GTHA New Condo Sales in 2024 Were Lowest Since 1996

     urbanation.ca

2. The Alberta Boom: What’s Driving Housing Growth in the West? Alberta’s housing starts surged by 32%—are we seeing a new migration trend?

   • Canadian Housing Market Report Jan. 20th, 2025

     wowa.ca

3. Ontario’s Slowdown: Why New Homes Aren’t Getting Built Interest rates, regulations, and labor shortages—what’s really behind the decline?

   • Stagnant housing market prompts CREA to trim 2024 outlook

     globalnews.ca

4. Rents Are Rising, But So Are Purpose-Built Rentals—Will It Be Enough? Investors are shifting to rental construction, but can it keep up with demand?

   • Canadian Housing - RBC Economics

     thoughtleadership.rbc.com

5. First-Time Buyer Playbook: Should You Wait or Buy Now? The market’s tight—what should you do if you're planning to buy in 2025?

   • Canadian Housing Outlook: Sunnier Skies Ahead

     economics.td.com

6. Mortgage Trends: Will Falling Rates Help Affordability? With rates expected to ease, what does that mean for buyers and homeowners?

   • Canada's housing affordability crisis may persist for years despite rate cuts

     reuters.com

7. The 400,000 Homes Canada Needs—What Will It Take? A look at the policy changes, zoning battles, and supply chain issues standing in the way.

   • 2025 Housing Market Outlook - CMHC

     cmhc-schl.gc.ca

8. BC’s Housing Puzzle: Why Starts Are Down Despite Soaring Demand Unpacking why BC’s new home construction is lagging behind expectations.

   • Canadian Housing Market Report Jan. 20th, 2025

     wowa.ca

9. Quebec’s Surprise Housing Surge—What’s Different? Unlike Ontario and BC, Quebec is seeing more new homes—what’s driving the trend?

   • Canadian Housing Market Report Jan. 20th, 2025

     wowa.ca

10. Investor Exodus: Why Some Landlords Are Selling Off Rental Units Higher costs, new regulations, and cooling markets—what’s pushing investors out?

    • Is Canada's condo market in trouble?

      mpamag.com

Have a great weekend everyone, looking like a nice one out there.

- Andrew

_{As always, if you have any questions hit reply!}